Digital technologies and urbanizing societies are changing the way we move, consume and interact with our environment. We look at 5 mega trends and their impact on future mobility, automotive and industrial sectors
by Paolo Martino, Automotive & Transportation, Frost & Sullivan
Mega Trend 1: City as a Customer
The recent milestone of over 50% of the overall world population living in cities has marked the shift towards urbanization on all continents. But not only do cities grow, there are also new forms of urban conglomerates that go beyond the conventional concept of the city. Among such new forms are the so-called mega cities, but also mega regions and mega corridors as well as smart and sustainable cities are part of present and future landscapes.
Along with that development goes an increased importance of the city as an economic entity. Cities, not countries, will drive wealth creation in the future. Cities like Seoul account for 50% of the country’s GDP, and Budapest (Hungary) and Brussels (Belgium) each for roughly 45%. Probable micro implications of that trend are a high economic power, hub and spoke business models, transit oriented development and new mobility solutions.
Mega Trend 2: Smart is the new green
In contrast to the notion of green, the smart city, or environment in general, includes more facetes. Besides a strong ecological awareness future societies will require a higher degree of security, and interfaces of intelligent systems for comminication, orientation and production. Only such a balanced approach will ensure sustainability and efficiency on a long term.
If we look at the automotive industry the smart way is based on several elements:
- Eco-driving aids: Eco-driving analysis and information presentation to driver
- Within the vehicle: Multimodal HMI – information presentation to user
- Personal media: ipod, iphone, ipad all bridging digital life style gaps in car
- Device connectivity: Both for content and data pipe (tethered connectivity model)
- Cloud management: Toyota, Ford and Nissan also partnering for cloud usage
- Outside the vehicle: Sensors, V2V, V2I, V2H, D2D, ADAS, Crowd sourcing, cloud interaction
Mega Trend 3: Connectivity & convergence
The forecast for the usage of digital hardware indicates a significant increase of devices connected to the internet: 80 billion connected devices worldwide with an average of 10 devices for every hosehold. More connectivity creates new opportunities to areas such as mobile banking, mobile commerce and social media.
In this context, upcoming intelligent and integrated mobility solutions will be driven by augmented reality and location based services. Those solutions provide the right information at the right moment and enables the user to adapt plans in real-time. Information on car sharing options, distances to airports and train stations, available parking services and intermodal communication lead not only to more, but smarter mobility.
Mega trend 4: Bricks and clicks
Global online retail sales are expected to account for 16.6% of all retail sales by 2020 and up to 25% in countries like the USA. As automotive retailers adopt the bricks and clicks approach, showrooms will reduce in size, retailing will become omnichannel, and marketing increasingly digital. The first digital car showroom, Audi City London, exemplifies the future of showrooms: Unlimited, personalised, socially connected and digitally integrated. The shopping experience will aim at leaving a strong impression through gamification, augmented reality offers and tailor-made services.
Urban transport will also be affected by the bricks and clicks mega trend. The concept of future delivery vans will revolve around technology, carbon footprint, fuel efficiency and sizes below 1 ton.
A look at the following 4 aspects illustrates the potential of smart urban transport:
Connectivity:
- Vehicle to grid communication navigation
- Green routing, terrain mapping
- On-Board traffic analysing tools
- Geo-fencing, and smart sensors
Design:
- Lighter weight vehicles (Plastic Shell)
- Low loading floor constructions
- Roll on-roll off systems
- Sizes below 1 ton in future
Powertrain:
- Electric
- Hybrids/Fuel cell
- CNG
- High speed automated transmissions
Driver support:
- Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (like Lane Management Systems)
Mega Trend 5: Future of mobility
To meet the challeges posed by the complex mobility of the future innovative approaches and solutions are needed. Innovation is likely to focus on the “wild” side, which is situated in the category of unknown solutions, as opposed to know solution. The following categories are “on the map” of future innovation in mobility:
A) Unknown solutions:
Technological innovation:
- Traffic prediction system
- Parking search assistance
- cashless payment
Wild innovation:
- Mobility integration
- New mobility products
- Motorized mover
- Two-seated electric car
B) Known solutions:
Improvement:
- Micro cars
- Electric cars
- Electric bikes
Application Innovation:
- Car sharing
- Car pooling
- Bike sharing
The future of mobility is multi-modal commuting, combining door-to-door solutions and uses dedicated mobility platforms. One promising area within that development is micro mobility. Solutions of micro mobility include an entirely new range of products with open-top and closed-top typologies. The new market emerging from these solutions is expected to explode in the future and the variety of available vehicles will be unprecedented.